When I saw Antiquorum’s lot 152 —the new Patek Philippe Nautilus ‘Olive Green’ ref. 5711/1A-014— offered for sale at their auction at the Monte Carlo Hotel de Paris in Monaco today, the first questions that came to my mind were: Where is the watch industry going? Why are some watch collectors so greedy? Is someone getting blacklisted over this?

With an original estimate between $60,000 and $180,000 USD, this watch sold today in excess of $490,000 USD with buyer’s premium. Just released during Watches & Wonders 2021 back in April, this ‘Olive Green’ Nautilus was auctioned in its ‘factory sealed’ condition. Additionally, the pictures included by Antiquorum in their catalog show all serial numbers pertaining to the movement and the case.

Considered the second hottest watch in the market after the other just-released Patek Philippe Nautilus ref. 5990/1R, it is hard for me to understand how a watch collector —who obviously is a VIP at certain Patek Philippe Authorized Dealer— decided to part with this watch to make a quick profit and risk his client status. Oh well, hopefully, he/she will get blacklisted.

Taking into account that the watch market has finally hit an all-time high level of extreme ridiculousness with unrealistically inflated prices, lack of inventory at the authorized dealers and watches only offered for sale through the ‘grey watch dealer’ network, I still cannot wrap my head around the fact that someone holding certain client status decided to flip this watch. But, what is even more shocking about this particular watch is that it sold for close to half a million dollars and that the watch is still factory sealed —even though authorized dealers are ‘supposedly’ required by Patek Philippe to cut the pouch upon delivery of their watches.

It is also disheartening that those real watch collectors not looking to make a quick profit, would’ve done anything in the world to get this watch allocated to them. Nevertheless, ADs choose to continue to sell multiple watches or allocate special pieces to those that couldn’t care less about the hobby and will simply turn around to sell immediately. And yes, you guys know who you are.

Now, the story about this watch gets better with the original buyer’s name all over the internet as Antiquorum posted a video on Instagram that showed his name “Gregory Pau” on the certificate —most likely a ‘fake’ name just used for the paperwork but who knows.

While ‘mere mortals’ like myself buy watches because we love them or just because we appreciate horology, there are others —most likely those giving kickbacks to the sales personnel at watch boutiques and authorized dealers— that buy watches just to brag about them on Instagram or to simply flip them for a profit.

Nowadays, putting a foot into a Rolex or Patek Philippe authorized dealer or even an Audemars Piguet boutique has become almost a comical thing. First, there are no watches in the vitrines or whatsoever; second, if you’ve never done business with them, expect to be treated in a very condescending way. However, if they know you, there’s always a chance that they’ll bring a watch or two from the back for your viewing pleasure.

Who is there to blame for the current watch market situation? Honestly, it is not the grey market watch dealers as many would think. The majority of these dealers are very reputable businessmen capitalizing on the opportunity and I don’t blame them at all. Who do I blame then? The brands, the unscrupulous watch flippers disguised as serious/prominent watch collectors, and the authorized dealers that have employees taking kickbacks.

And considering that the brands have figured out the perfect scheme that works in their favor, they won’t do anything about it ever. As they limit the supply, they continue to drive higher demand and create a frenzy which ultimately results in increasing the perceived value of their brands. Brands, ADs, and the grey market are winning while the real watch collectors or the average Joe simply wanting his first luxury watch are getting the very short end of the stick.

If you know anything about modern watches and pricing, you should know that a brand new watch should only be worth as much as its retail price —although sometimes overpriced— and no more than that. Anyone paying above retail is either too dumb or is simply throwing money away that wasn’t earned the hard way. My guess is that those paying the astronomical prices above retail are either using market gains from cryptocurrencies or they are money laundering. As simple as that. If you are legitimately wealthy you either get watches at retail at your favorite AD or you just don’t throw money away in a senseless way.

Is a stainless steel Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711/1A-014 with an olive green dial worth close to half a million dollars? No, it is not. Intrinsically this watch should be worth its price tag of $34,890 USD and that’s about it.

Extremely appalling that the brands are fully aware of what’s going in the market and are choosing to continue to fill their pockets and do nothing about it. The way I see it, this frenzy created by Instagram and fueled by the respective brands, literally adding fuel to the fire will have to come to a correction sometime soon before many of us just decide to move away from this lovely hobby.

For more info on Antiquorum click here.