This New Year 2022 marks the 50th anniversary of the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak and the price for any Royal Oak has hit an all-time high like I never imagined it ever would. Furthermore, when you hover over the pricing information for any watch on Audemars Piguet’s website, you get the following disclaimer: “Non-binding recommended public price in the USA”. This literally means that AP is not obligated to sell you any watch at the price that appears on their website and potentially establish the ‘sale price’ according to the basic laws of supply and demand. Pretty much, if demand increases but supply remains the same, this will cause an increase in the price. It is that simple. Is this the way AP wants to fight back against grey dealers or is it just a strategy to make more money on watches that are unobtainable?
Despite the new ‘non-binding pricing policy’ at AP, and regardless of the fact that I’ve been buying APs since 1998 and of what I do for a living, I just can’t get any AP Royal Oak at retail because the boutiques now tell you they are ‘sold out’ and there’s not a single watch in sight once you walk in.
At this point, they might as well just turn off the lights and send their boutique employees home to save on the cost of running a boutique with no inventory or whatsoever. My guess is that by the time you add up the rent —some high-end shopping centers will take a percentage of sales on top of the lease—, utilities, security, and employees; keeping the doors open must easily be costing close to $2 million a year per location. Just make the math.
Because of what I just explained, the only recourse I had was to play this nonsense game and plunge into the grey market to obtain the ‘unobtainable’. The last brand new Royal Oak that I purchased was during Christmas of 2019 and it was a ref. 15500ST with a ruthenium dial.
God, I hated that watch and since I never wore it, I sold it last year. Now, had I waited longer to sell that 15500ST, I would’ve doubled my money. I guess you win some, you lose some.
If you ask me why I hate the 15500ST so much, the answers are very simple. First, I dislike that the dial is missing the word ‘Automatic’ at the bottom half, the markers are too thick and short, the skeletonized counterweight on the seconds’ hand makes no sense, and the ultra-modern font on the calendar disc clashes with the serif font of ‘Audemars Piguet’. To me, its design appears ‘incomplete or unfinished’.
Considering my hate for the 15500 and since the Royal Oak references 15202, 15300, and 15400 are now long gone and officially discontinued, my only option was to find a pre-owned or NOS of one of these three references at a price that would make sense to me.
Even though I would’ve loved to find an original Royal Oak Jumbo ref. 5402ST —A, B, or even C-series— or a Royal Oak Extra-Thin Jumbo ref. 15202ST, the secondary market prices are now north of $100K USD, and that simply seemed too crazy.
While the AP Royal Oak is my favorite watch —is no secret— and I consider it the perfect all-around timepiece with the best bracelet in the watch industry, I also think that it shouldn’t be a six-figure watch.
In my time collecting watches from Audemars Piguet, I’ve owned no less than twelve Royal Oaks including three Jumbos ref. 5402STs, two Jumbos ref. 5402SAs, a Royal Oak Extra-Thin Jumbo ref. 15202OR in 18K rose gold, a ref. 15300ST with blue dial, a ref. 15400ST with silvered dial, a ref. 15400ST with ruthenium dial, a ref. 15500ST with ruthenium dial, and two Royal Oak Perpetual Calendars ref. 26574ST with blue dial amongst others.
Having owned so many Royal Oaks in the past, allowed me to turn what seemed like a complex decision into an easy one. Also, since I’ve owned ref. 15300 and 15400 in the past and I’ve experienced all different dial colors with the exception of black, it was easy to decide to look for a mint or a ‘NOS’ —new old stock or safe queen— Royal Oak ref. 15400ST with a black dial. And only then, it would make sense for me to pay double the retail price for a Royal Oak 15500 in steel for an older most likely polished Royal Oak.
Then, after months of navigating the ‘for sale listings’ across watch forums, Chrono24, pre-owned watch dealer websites, and the listings of some of my favorite grey dealers, I finally came across the perfect watch. A true safe queen NOS that would tick all the boxes for me and would convince me of doing the unimaginable and what I said I would never do.
I finally found myself biting my tongue after saying I would never pay above retail for any watch. But what’s retail nowadays when even AP uses a non-binding pricing strategy?
Considering the Royal Oak purist that I am, many of you must be wondering how I really feel about the 15202. To me, the Royal Oak Jumbo ref. 5402ST has no rival. I also feel that the rest of the Royal Oaks are constantly fighting one another to see which one is the second-best.
Even when the 40th-anniversary Royal Oak Extra-Thin Jumbo ref. 15202ST is the closest you’ll ever get to the original Royal Oak from 1972, lacking a monobloc case construction like the original Jumbo is the biggest downside of this reference. While the 15202 is still powered by the same calibre 2120 powering the original Jumbo, nowadays, having a quick-set calendar on a watch is a must and unfortunately, the rapid-advance calendar mechanism doesn’t cut it. But I guess this is better than nothing.
The reasons why I decided to take a ref. 15400 over a ref. 15300 are many. First, I like that the 15400 has a bigger case at 41 mm but the watch wears closer to 40 mm. Then, I love the double baton at 12 o’clock —like on the original ref. 5402— with a smaller applied ‘AP’ logo, the calendar disc matches the color of the dial which makes it very discreet, and I absolutely love the small marker next to the date aperture.
Yes, call me crazy because I didn’t want a 15300 at 39 mm. Welcoming the 15400ST with black dial as my 14th Royal Oak ever, never felt so good. Literally, steel at the price of gold.
Lastly, something that also draws me even more to the ref. 15400 and that is rarely discussed, is the size of the tapisserie on its dial. While both the ref. 15300 and the 15400 feature 'Grande Tapisserie', the squares on the tapisserie of the latter appear slightly smaller and that is also very attractive.
Now, only a week after receiving my 15400ST with black dial, I can truly say that I did the right thing and I have no regrets. In just a week on the wrist, I’ve made so many incredible memories with this new watch —including ringing the New Year 2022 with it—, that overpaying was definitely not a mistake.
Considering that this watch will be my daily wearer as I turn 50 this year just like the AP Royal Oak, I really didn’t want to continue missing the opportunity of getting one as prices have continued to go up in just one week. While during the summer of 2021 you could find a decent full-set Royal Oak 15400ST in the mid $30K USD, today, they’ve gone up to $55K USD for safe queens and no less than $45K for full-sets in excellent condition.
My guess is that all these discontinued Royal Oaks have not hit their top price yet and once Audemars Piguet unveils any new 50th anniversary Royal Oaks in the upcoming months, the price for 15400s, 15300s, and 15202s will just continue to skyrocket. Or perhaps what will continue to drive the price up is when we see what Gerald Genta’s very own Royal Oak sells for at auction. later this year.
If you ask me where do I see pricing for 15400s going, I’d confidently say that maybe close to $80K USD before the end of the year. Steel at the price of gold. Buy now or regret it forever!
In the meantime, I leave you with some of my favorite shots from this past week.
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