Two weeks ago I wrote an article on the Rolex Submariner Hulk reaching an all-time high in the secondary market. Today, I am going to be talking about the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak ref. 15500ST reaching another all-time high. While the global pandemic follows its course and mortgage interest rates hit an all-time low under 3%, all I can think of is the secondary watch market and how it’s gone totally crazy. Every week I check the for sale listings across different watch fora and the websites of some of the most important watch dealers in the world, to get a sense of what the watch market looks like. While listings on pre-owned timepieces represent the majority of the secondary market, brand new watches that are being sold by grey dealers because they are impossible to get at a boutique or at an authorized dealer have become almost as important.
Well, this past Monday I just could not believe my eyes. For the very first time, a brand new Audemars Piguet Royal Oak ref. 15500ST in stainless steel with blue dial reached the $38,575 USD mark. Yes people, almost forty grand. Meanwhile, the price for the same watch with a silver or a ruthenium dial hit close to $32,000 USD. The Royal Oak ref. 15500ST was being sold during the first part of 2020 within the $23,500-$25,000 USD range despite the retail price is only $20,400 USD.
Now, if you are looking for the older Royal Oak reference 15400ST today, expect to pay anywhere between $28,000-$29,500 USD. A month ago, this very same watch was selling anywhere between $23-$25K USD —without a blue dial. Now, six to seven years ago you could buy a 15400 around $12,000 USD.
With this being said, all I can think of is when this bubble will burst or if it will at all. Honestly, I don’t see that coming anytime soon.
As the world economy continues to plummet, why are luxury timepieces still doing so well? Are the richest driving the market or is it just smoke and mirrors? These are just some of the questions I like to ask myself every time that I see the secondary market going totally crazy in an unexpected way at such an uncertain time.
For a number of years, I’ve said that watches are the new currency and with the current market conditions this couldn’t be more accurate. While some brands are currently struggling to move their inventory, brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe continue to strengthen and command crazy prices in the secondary market. But one thing that hasn’t changed yet is the level of uncertainty. If this is like the stock market when is the right time to sell, buy, or just do nothing?
While just a few are capitalizing with the current prices and grey dealers are making money hand over fist, What does it look like for the authorized dealers? Are they releasing this inventory to their VIPs or making extra cash above retail selling to grey dealers?
One thing for sure is that watch collecting is nowhere as fun as it used to be. Back before Instagram —one of the main culprits— created an over-hyped demand for certain watches, watch collecting was really about the love for watches. You’d walk into an authorized dealer and you would be able to walk out with a new watch at retail or slightly discounted regardless of your buying history with them or regardless who you were.
Today, you can’t do that anymore. Once you walk into an AD or a brand boutique simply forget about asking for the novelties because those are reserved for the VIPs with buying history or the grey dealers they know so well. Is this fair? No, it is not. Now, I am not attacking neither the ADs nor all the grey dealers because I’ve purchased a lot of watches from them and a few grey dealers happen to be good friends of mine and respectable businessmen. However, those greedy dealers —you know who you are— that turned the secondary market into a complete cataclysm, I really couldn’t care less about you and I hope you get what you deserve when and if the bubble ever bursts.
If the average Joe client is disgusted by what’s going on, simply imagine someone like me —the publisher of a leading magazine about luxury watches and a watch collector for thirty years—, who can’t just walk into an AD and buy one of the newly released watches by Rolex, Patek, or Audemars Piguet. It feels really awful that I put the work on a daily basis to deliver superior watch content for these brands and I can’t even buy the watches I write about. If I am feeling this way, I know my peers in the industry must feel similarly.
Now, imagine those folks that have been loyal to a brand for decades but can’t even buy their novelties now. They must be feeling really bad. Talk about a huge ‘F… You’ slammed right on their faces.
Either the brands are controlling the supply too much that it cannot meet the demand level or the ADs are the ones playing this nonsense game that leaves most of us watch lovers unhappy. Either way, I hope that things change in the near future and watch collecting continues to be fun because, in all honesty, it is not anymore.
